Mechanisms of purple moor-grass (Molinia caerulea) encroachment in dry heathland ecosystems with chronic nitrogen inputs

We analysed growth strategies (biomass allocation, nutrient sequestration and allocation) of heather (Calluna vulgaris) and purple moor-grass (Molinia caerulea) seedlings in monocultures and mixtures in relation to N, P, and N + P fertilisation in a greenhouse experiment in order to simulate a heath’s pioneer phase under high airborne nitrogen (N) loads. N fertilisation increased the total biomass of both species in monocultures. In mixtures, M. caerulea sequestered about 65% of the N applied, while C. vulgaris suffered from N shortage (halving of the total biomass). Thus, in mixtures only M. caerulea will benefit from airborne N loads, and competition will become increasingly asymmetric with increasing N availability. Our results demonstrate that the heath’s pioneer phase is the crucial tipping point at which the competitive vigour of M. caerulea (high belowground allocation, efficient use of belowground resources, shortened reproductive cycles) induces a shift to dominance of grasses under increased N availability.     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Development and verification of a toxicokinetic model of polychlorinated biphenyl elimination in persons working in a contaminated building

BACKGROUND: Polychlorinated biphenyls are toxic and slowly degrading substances that have been in widespread industrial use in the 1960s and 1970s. Despite a worldwide reduction, environmental exposure remains an issue; the assessment of an individual's level of exposure at a given time in retrospect requires valid toxicokinetic modeling of the different PCB congeners. OBJECTIVES: To develop and verify a toxicokinetic model of the in vivo-degradation of PCB 28 and 52 in adult humans. METHODS: The plasma concentrations of PCB congeners were measured in 583 persons working in a contaminated building for an average of 14.7+/-9.6 years. The values were adapted to a simple pharmacokinetic model (yt = y0 x (1 - e(-kt))); the steady state concentration y0 was estimated based on the median values of persons working exposed more than 10 years. RESULTS: The steady state concentration of PCB 28 was 0.10 microg/l, that of PCB 52 0.02 microg/l. The half-life of the congeners was estimated based on a logarithmic regression analysis according to the model mentioned above; it was 2.18 (95% CI: 1.91-2.54) years for PCB 28 and 3.95 (95% CI: 3.55-4.45) years for PCB 52, respectively. Stepwise elimination of persons with very long employment duration did not reduce the estimated half-life. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated half-life is higher than previously published data especially for PCB 52. Possible reasons and implications of this finding are discussed.     

High acidity tolerance in lichens with fumarprotocetraric, perlatolic or thamnolic acids is correlated with low pKa1 values of these lichen substances

The depsidone fumarprotocetraric acid as well as the depsides perlatolic and thamnolic acids are lichen secondary metabolites. Their first dissociation constants (pK_a1) in methanol were determined to be 2.7 for perlatolic acid and 2.8 for fumarprotocetraric and thamnolic acids by UV spectroscopy. Lower pK_a1 values are, so far, not known from lichen substances. Several lichens producing at least one of these compounds are known for their outstanding tolerance to acidic air pollution. This is demonstrated by evaluating published pH preferences for central European lichens. The low pK_a1 values suggest that strong dissociation of the studied lichen substances is a prerequisite for the occurrence of lichens with these compounds on very acidic substrata, as protonated lichen substances of different chemical groups, but not their conjugated bases, are known to shuttle protons into the cytoplasm and thereby apparently damage lichens.     

Analysis of perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) and other perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in the River Po watershed in N-Italy

C7-C11 perfluorinated carboxylates (PFACs) and perfluorooctansulfonate (PFOS) were analysed in selected stretches of the River Po and its major tributaries. Analyses were performed by solid-phase extraction (SPE) with Oasis HLB cartridges and methanol elution followed by LC-MS-MS detection using 13C-labelled internal standards. High concentration levels ( approximately 1.3 microg l(-1)) of perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) were detected in the Tánaro River close to the city Alessandria. After this tributary, levels between 60 and 337 ng l(-1) were measured in the Po River on several occasions. The PFOA concentration close to the river mouth in Ferrara was between 60 and 174 ng l(-1). Using the river discharge flow data in m3 s(-1) at this point (average approximately 920 m3 s(-1) for the year 2006), a mass load of approximately 0.3 kg PFOA per hour or approximately 2.6 tons per year discharged in the Adriatic Sea has been calculated. PFOS concentration levels in the Po River at Ferrara were approximately 10 ng l(-1).     

The CO2 abatement cost curve for the Thailand cement industry

The cement industry is one of the largest carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitters in the Thai industry. The cement sector accounted for about 20,633 kilotonnes (ktonnes) CO₂ emissions in 2005 in Thailand. A bottom-up CO₂ abatement cost curve (ACC) is constructed in this study for the Thai cement industry to determine the potentials and costs of CO₂ abatement, taking into account the costs and CO₂ abatement of different technologies. The period of 2010–2025 is chosen as the scenario period. We analyzed 41 CO₂ abatement technologies and measures for the cement industry. Using the bottom-up CO₂ ACC model, the cost-effective annual CO₂ abatement potential for the Thai cement industry during the 15 year scenario period (2010–2025) is equal to 3095 ktonnes CO₂/year. This is about 15% of the Thai cement industry’s total CO₂ emissions in 2005. The total technical annual CO₂ abatement potential is 3143 ktonnes CO₂/year, which is about 15.2% of the Thai cement industry’s total CO₂ emissions in 2005. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis for the discount rate parameter.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Quantification of nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems by use of a process oriented biogeochemical model

Simulations with the process oriented Forest-DNDC model showed reasonable to good agreement with observations of soil water contents of different soil layers, annual amounts of seepage water and approximated rates of nitrate leaching at 79 sites across Germany. Following site evaluation, Forest-DNDC was coupled to a GIS to assess nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems for the year 2000. At national scale leaching rates varied in a range of 0–>80 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (mean 5.5 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). A comparison of regional simulations with the results of a nitrate inventory study for Bavaria showed that measured and simulated percentages for different nitrate leaching classes (0–5 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:66% vs. 74%, 5–15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:20% vs. 20%, >15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:14% vs. 6%) were in good agreement. Mean nitrate concentrations in seepage water ranged between 0 and 23 mg NO₃–N l⁻¹.